This is an example of the types or services and detail you will find in the daily email. This one was sent out on 23rd November and they will normally always be with you by around 11am although this is very much dependent on tournament timings etc.
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Morning all,
It has been a tough week so far and a lot quieter than usual. That's just the way it runs sometimes and bank preservation should always be our main concern. We got cheap on Federer when you look at the manner of the destruction (The best I have seen Federer play for over 3 years) of the World Number 2. Granted Nadal was not 100% and hasn't been for some time but there's no way he wanted to lose a 0-6 set to anybody, let alone Federer and the Swiss played a very intelligent game against him.
Nadal is in big trouble as he would still have lost convincingly last night even at 100% as Federer player perfectly to every weakness he has. Don't play it with pace to the forehand side when he can get it back and rush him on the backhand side is the approach everyone is taking with Nadal now since Djokovic so comprehensively deconstructed his game and made him seem quite ordinary.
For all his faults Djokovic, he finds a way to win these days and is certainly the most intelligent "game player" on the tour. Nadal doesn't have the intelligence or capacity to change from his "run around like a lunatic and hit every ball as hard as I can" approach and if he doesn't adapt he is as well retiring now because it would be quite the tragedy if such a decorated player should slide down the rankings to anonymity.
Everyone is having a go this week and it's good to see but as I suggested at the outset, Federer is rightly big favourite here and according to my pricing...Fed wins against any one of these players this week 81% of the time. That's scary and shows how much better he is on the Indoor courts than anyone else and so far you can only see one winner.
Cricket today aswell as some "hopefully more consistent" horses and some Champions League stuff to get stuck into, I would imagine Barca will drift today when people actually see the value of AC Milan at HOME at 5.0!!! It's an insane price whoever they are playing and Barca aren't exactly pulling up trees on their travels this year against anybody half decent. They also have a tired squad after all the Corporate internationals that World Champions have to fulfil and for a game that they just don't need to win they may be happy with any kind of result tonight I would imagine.
Worth monitoring anyway.....
Good Luck!
Cricket
We have done very well out of this series and as always it's intellligent price taking but in turn that is based on weighing up the actual match up in question and looking for where we may get the price we want yet it still represents a good position to take (ie the market is over reacting). So far in our approach to these games we have taken a position opposing a very weak Sri Lankan batting line up bar a few key players. As good as these players are they are not going to consistently win games single handedly in short format games.
Once the middle order falls they are fighting a losing battle yet the price is still there... that's what we have played on. We hit a lucky turn the last game we traded, a game in which Sri Lanka had traded 1.03 before the key men departed and it went from 1.03 to 2.40 in 2 wickets.
This is how we'll play it again
We'll look for Sri Lanka to take a lead and trust that Pakistan whoever they field will likely bowl them out.
Our approach on Sri Lanka will be xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.
Our approach on Pakistan will be xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
That's my plan pre-game anyway and we can adjust in play as we go along...
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Horses
A bit of an up and down day yesterday but consistency should settle down soon. A couple of these could go real close today with that touch of luck...
1.05 Lingfield - ICE TROOPER
3.45 Lingfield - SCRUFFY SKIP
7.05 Kempton - AVERTIS
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Tennis
14:00 Tipsarevic vs Berdych
Ok so how often have we seen this .... player/team gets drafted in as replacement, feels they have a chance of a lifetime, plays without fear and runs close to the big prize...
I'm not suggesting Tipsa is going to win this at all, in fact not one player here is fit to lace Federers boots on the last 4 weeks form but who has the pressure on them in this game?
Berdych is one of my favourite players. He has everything in his game and he can be anything that he wants to be. My two complaints about him are firstly his lack of concentration (again demonstrated perfectly when he was a break up at the end of the 3rd against Djoko only to get immediately broken back as the pressure got to him. A match he thoroughly deserved to win as well), and secondly he does not cope well as the favourite. After his best results so far in making the Wimbledon Final in 2010 he suffered a 6 month period where he simply could not play tennis.
After much soul searching and problems in his private life he attributed that shocking half season all to the fact that he was just not used to being the favourite in the big matches. He did not know how to handle the pressure of expectation at all well.
I have seen him play countless times where he has amazed me and there's only really Del Potro who has the same kind of power around the court as Berdych. The Czech is every bit as talented though lacking severely in mental strength when the going gets tough.
They played recently and Tipsarevic was well ahead in both sets only to somehow contrive to throw away a double break lead in the first and much the same again in the second. Tipsa isn't ever really given the credit he should get and I have been touting him as talented enough for the Top 10 for a good while now and it's good to see him finally just playing to win. I think he just finally grew up and got on with things without all the whining. He certainly isn't the first super talented Eastern European to have temperament issues!
A tight game if ever there was one but Berdych is heavy on self belief at the moment and I honestly believe there isn't a player in the world that he can't beat when his game comes together.
In terms of match up I'd suggest , as per usual, this game is all about how well Berdych serves. If he serves well he wins because it places the other player under so much pressure to hold. He also has some great ground strokes and can play without fear when the serve is working. Only the very top players can live with him on top form and Tipsa belongs in that 8-12 bracket which is a big step down from 1-6 in the mens game. If his serve is off his game can just unravel and as I mentioned above... Tipsa is under no pressure at all here.
The sensible play is to follow the money back for Berdych but be very careful if his 1st serve is missing! For that reason and also because Tipsa can play without pressure - there is no reason why we shouldn't take a tight price lay on Berdych in the first aswell...
Berdych - xx Target - xx Stop Loss - xx
Tipsarevic - xx Target - xx Stop Loss - xx
20:00 Djokovic Vs Ferrer
I don't know what to make of Djokovic other than to say if he's fit he wins. I think the market briefly fell ut of love with him against Berdych and I was also perhaps too guilty of assuming Djokovic was hampered rather than Berdych playing amazing tennis. The most annoying thing about that game was you still always knew that Djokovic could step up another gear if he really needed to.
That said I still don't think he should be giving players a set head start in every game! It has become a regular thing for him and a worrying thing aswell and I think if he keeps it up then he is going to get a shock come his way.
Ferrer is another one of my favourite players mainly because of his honesty and his will to win. You know what you are getting from him game after game and he will run himself into the ground for every single point no matter what the score is or what stage of the match. Even at 0-6, 0-5 Ferrer would still be charging around for every single point and there aren't many other players that you could say that about.
However you look at this you know the money is going to follow Djokovic wherever he goes. In terms of match up he isn't going to have the big serve to deal with and even half fit he is better in every aspect of the game than Ferrer so taking the higher prices on a split stake trade is ideal here if Djoko again starts slow.
Split stake trade on Djokovic
Back Djokovic xx
Lay Ferrer xx
Lay Ferrer - xx
Looking to exit around xx on the Djokovic ladder. Stop loss is xx of total stake lost.
We normally do not execute if Djoko crashed in price first but I have absolutely no doubts he will return in this game unless he pulls a muscle.
We also look to take stakes out as price returns. I don't think that is entirely necessary here as the money will push it a long way back. If you manage to get all trades running and leave them running then xx is an acceptable exit here. Just be sure to stay tight with the stop losses on these.
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Football
Solid card and I have adjusted the TEST OVERS a little. let's see if it makes any difference over the next few days. They were just an idea I wanted to test out anyway but so far it's quite up and down so I am reluctant to test it for months without any clear signs of success but if this works.... we have plenty of money to collect! I have also re-included some Standard LTD games today now that I appear to have been able to address the liquidity problem.
Overs
19:45:00, Valencia v Genk
19:45:00, Shakhtar v Porto
19:45:00, Arsenal v Dortmund
Correct Scores
19:45:00, Arsenal v Dortmund
19:45:00, Shakhtar v Porto
Advanced LTD
16:30:00, NK Maribor v Gorica
Standard LTD **TEST**
11:30:00, Tampines Rovers v Home Utd,
19:45:00, Leverkusen v Chelsea,
19:45:00, Shakhtar v Porto
TEST OVERS ** DO NOT USE **
10:00:00, Hindustan v East Bengal,
11:30:00, Kaliakra v Lokomotiv Sofia,
14:00:00, Chievo v Modena,
14:00:00, Bologna v Crotone,
16:00:00, Beroe Stara Za v Ludogorets,
17:00:00, Zenit St Petersburg v APOEL,
19:45:00, Marseille v Olympiakos,
